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Sao Paulo vs Corinthians

Brasileirão Série A· Round Regular Season - 34Finished
Sao Paulo
0:0Thu, Nov 05 08:30Estadio Urbano Caldeira
Corinthians

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 5 · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 06:44
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 5 · Update (2h before) · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 06:44

Data completeness 88%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Sao Paulo have conceded 0.6 goals and recorded 1.61 expected goals per game over their last 5 home matches, while Corinthians have conceded 2.6 goals and recorded 1.87 expected goals conceded per game over their last 5 away matches, supporting a lean toward Sao Paulo on the Asian handicap. The 2-goal total points line leans over, but Corinthians’ actual goals scored and conceded have both exceeded their expected metrics, creating a risk that finishing efficiency declines. The low-intensity score lean is 2-1, while the goals-band lean is 2-3.

Per-market leans and evidence unlock with membership or pointsBack to unlock ↑

Analysis versions (4)
  1. Version 5Update (2h before)Nov 05, 2026, 06:44Current

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  2. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 04, 2026, 23:30View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  3. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 04, 2026, 17:22View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 04, 2026, 08:41View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

0 - 090 minutes 0-0

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapSao Paulo 0Push
Over / underOver 2Loss
Correct score2-1Miss
Total goals2-3Miss

Review

Final score 0-0. Asian handicap Sao Paulo 0 → push; over/under Over 2 → loss; correct score 2-1 → miss; total goals 2-3 → miss.

Nov 05, 2026, 10:36