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Sao Paulo vs Corinthians

Brasileirão Série A· Round Regular Season - 34Finished
Sao Paulo
0:0Thu, Nov 05 08:30Estadio Urbano Caldeira
Corinthians

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 3 · Generated Nov 04, 2026, 23:30
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Market verdicts

Version 3 · Odds move rerun · Generated Nov 04, 2026, 23:30

Data completeness 88%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Sao Paulo have conceded 0.6 goals per home game and have a home expected goals conceded figure of 0.79, while Corinthians have conceded 2.6 per away game and have an away expected goals figure of 0.63, leaving Sao Paulo with a slight edge under the -0.25 handicap. For total goals, Corinthians' away defensive figures and the 3.67 goals per match average in the head-to-head record support the over, although Sao Paulo's home defense is a constraint. The scoreline is therefore centered on 1-0, with 2-3 goals the leading band.

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Analysis versions (4)
  1. Version 5Update (2h before)Nov 05, 2026, 06:44View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  2. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 04, 2026, 23:30Current

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  3. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 04, 2026, 17:22View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 04, 2026, 08:41View this version

    Direction unchanged