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Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis

UEFA Champions League· Round League Stage - 4Finished
Dortmund
2:1Thu, Nov 05 04:00Signal Iduna Park
Betis

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 4 · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 03:43
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 4 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 03:43

Data completeness 90%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Borussia Dortmund have averaged 2.2 goals scored, 0.8 conceded and a 60% clean sheet rate in their last 5 home matches, while Betis concede 1.8 goals per game away with a 20% clean sheet rate, giving better support to the floor of the home -0.75 line; the two teams' last 10 matches average 1.89 and 1.93 expected goals respectively, with the 3.25 total goals line sitting right on the boundary, so the total goals lean is under but with limited confidence, and the score and goal-band cluster falls in the two-to-three goal range.

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Analysis versions (3)
  1. Version 4Lineup updateNov 05, 2026, 03:43Current

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  2. Version 2Price updateNov 04, 2026, 19:46View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 04, 2026, 04:21View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

2 - 190 minutes 2-1

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapDortmund -1Push
Over / underUnder 3.25Half win
Correct score2-0Miss
Total goals2-3Hit

Review

Final score 2-1. Asian handicap Dortmund -1 → push; over/under Under 3.25 → half win; correct score 2-0 → miss; total goals 2-3 → hit.

Nov 05, 2026, 06:06