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Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis

UEFA Champions League· Round League Stage - 4Finished
Dortmund
2:1Thu, Nov 05 04:00Signal Iduna Park
Betis

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 2 · Generated Nov 04, 2026, 19:46
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Market verdicts

Version 2 · Price update · Generated Nov 04, 2026, 19:46

Data completeness 78%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Dortmund's last 5 home matches show 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game with a 60% clean-sheet rate, while Betis concede 1.8 per game away with a 20% clean-sheet rate, which supports the floor for the home side at -0.75; the two teams' expected goals per game over the last 10 matches are 1.89 and 1.93 respectively, placing the total line of 3.25 right at the boundary — the total goals lean is under but with limited confidence, with correct score and goals bands concentrated in the two-to-three goal range.

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Analysis versions (3)
  1. Version 4Lineup updateNov 05, 2026, 03:43View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  2. Version 2Price updateNov 04, 2026, 19:46Current

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 04, 2026, 04:21View this version

    Direction unchanged