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Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat

NBAFinished
Warriors
120:100Fri, Nov 06 11:00
Heat

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  • Point spreadPublished
  • Total pointsPublished
  • Version 2 · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 09:12
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Market verdicts

Version 2 · Update (2h before) · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 09:12

Data completeness 87%
Point spreadPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total pointsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

The Warriors won all of their last 5 games, with scores of 116-113, 124-112 and 112-95 in their latest three home games; the Heat's defensive efficiency over their last 10 games was 118.1. Overall, the point spread leans slightly toward the home team, while total points is pulled between the 226.5 average score in their meetings and Miami's pace of 102 and offensive efficiency of 117.5, leaning slightly toward the under.

Per-market leans and evidence unlock with membership or pointsBack to unlock ↑

Analysis versions (1)
  1. Version 2Update (2h before)Nov 06, 2026, 09:12Current

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

120 - 100

MarketPickOutcome
Point spreadWarriors -3.5Win
Total pointsOver 235.5Loss

Review

Final score 120-100. point spread Warriors -3.5 → win; total points Over 235.5 → loss.

Nov 06, 2026, 13:36