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Denver Nuggets vs Toronto Raptors

NBAFinished
Nuggets
128:109Thu, Nov 05 10:00
Raptors

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  • Point spreadPublished
  • Total pointsPublished
  • Version 2 · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 08:15
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Market verdicts

Version 2 · Update (2h before) · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 08:15

Data completeness 87%
Point spreadPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total pointsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

The away team's net efficiency over the last 10 games was 3.5, compared with -5.5 for the home team, and the away team's rebounding rate of 0.501 exceeded the home team's 0.45. With the home team at -4.5, this points more toward the away team covering. For total points, the head-to-head average of 221.67 was below 231.5, but the away team has recently produced consecutive overs, making the under only a weaker lean.

Per-market leans and evidence unlock with membership or pointsBack to unlock ↑

Analysis versions (2)
  1. Version 2Update (2h before)Nov 05, 2026, 08:15Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 04, 2026, 23:27View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

128 - 109

MarketPickOutcome
Point spreadRaptors +4.5Loss
Total pointsOver 231.5Win

Review

Final score 128-109. point spread Raptors +4.5 → loss; total points Over 231.5 → win.

Nov 05, 2026, 12:36