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Auxerre vs Paris FC

Ligue 1· Round Regular Season - 10Finished
Auxerre
0:1Sun, Nov 08 02:00Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps
Paris FC

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 4 · Generated Nov 08, 2026, 01:16
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Market verdicts

Version 4 · Price update · Generated Nov 08, 2026, 01:16

Data completeness 88%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Auxerre have conceded 1.2 goals per match over their last 5 home matches, while Paris FC have scored 1 goal and conceded 1.4 per match over their last 5 away matches. The home/away split supports Auxerre +0.75 more strongly. Auxerre’s overall expected goals conceded of 2.21 and the away side’s expected goals of 1.82 per match support a slight lean to over, but the venue split and low-scoring head-to-head meetings provide clear counterevidence.

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Analysis versions (4)
  1. Version 4Price updateNov 08, 2026, 01:16Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 08, 2026, 00:24View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 15:20View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 07, 2026, 02:33View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

0 - 190 minutes 0-1

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapAuxerre +0.75Half loss
Over / underOver 2.75Loss
Correct score2-1Miss
Total goals4+Miss

Review

Final score 0-1. Asian handicap Auxerre +0.75 → half loss; over/under Over 2.75 → loss; correct score 2-1 → miss; total goals 4+ → miss.

Nov 08, 2026, 04:06