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Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg

Bundesliga· Round Regular Season - 9Finished
Dortmund
2:1Sat, Nov 07 22:30Signal Iduna Park
Elversberg

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 5 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 22:10
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Market verdicts

Version 5 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 22:10

Data completeness 90%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Borussia Dortmund have averaged 2.2 goals and 0.94 expected goals conceded per game in their last 5 home matches, while SV Elversberg average 1 goal and 2.12 expected goals conceded away from home. The home side has the edge, but a 1.5-goal handicap still faces uncertainty in converting that edge into a winning margin. The overall weak lean is toward the away side receiving the handicap and under 3.5 goals, with the score and goal-band leaning toward 2-1 and 2-3 goals respectively; the away side's recent high-variance scorelines limit the strength of the judgement.

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Analysis versions (5)
  1. Version 5Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 22:10Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 4Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 20:45View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 3Price updateNov 07, 2026, 20:26View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 14:34View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 22:46View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

2 - 190 minutes 2-1

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapElversberg +1.5Win
Over / underUnder 3.5Win
Correct score2-1Hit
Total goals2-3Hit

Review

Final score 2-1. Asian handicap Elversberg +1.5 → win; over/under Under 3.5 → win; correct score 2-1 → hit; total goals 2-3 → hit.

Nov 08, 2026, 00:36