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Parma vs Bologna

Serie A· Round Regular Season - 11Finished
Parma
1:2Sun, Nov 08 01:00Ennio Tardini
Bologna

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 7 · Generated Nov 08, 2026, 00:43
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 7 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 08, 2026, 00:43

Data completeness 100%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Parma have averaged 0.6 goals and conceded 1.27 expected goals in their last 5 home matches, while Bologna have averaged 1.6 goals and recorded 1.38 expected goals in their last 5 away matches. The away side has the advantage, but there is limited evidence that they can pull the game away, so the Asian handicap slightly favors Parma +0.75. Bologna have recently recorded 4-2 and 2-1 scorelines, making the total goals line of 2.25 slightly favor the over, but Parma's weak home attacking output limits the strength of that view.

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Analysis versions (7)
  1. Version 7Lineup updateNov 08, 2026, 00:43Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 6Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 23:21View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 5Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 20:41View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 4Price updateNov 07, 2026, 17:26View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 14:41View this version

    Direction unchanged

  6. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 13:33View this version

    Direction unchanged

  7. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 07, 2026, 01:19View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

1 - 290 minutes 1-2

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapBologna -0.75Half win
Over / underUnder 2.25Loss
Correct score0-1Miss
Total goals0-1Miss

Review

Final score 1-2. Asian handicap Bologna -0.75 → half win; over/under Under 2.25 → loss; correct score 0-1 → miss; total goals 0-1 → miss.

Nov 08, 2026, 03:06