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Kashiwa Reysol vs Kawasaki Frontale

J1 League· Round Regular Season - 14Finished
Kashiwa Reysol
2:1Sat, Nov 07 15:00Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium
Kawasaki Frontale

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 3 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 14:39
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 3 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 14:39

Data completeness 90%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Kashiwa Reysol have averaged 2.6 goals per game over their last 5 home matches but only 1.2 expected goals; Kawasaki Frontale have averaged 1.71 expected goals over their last 5 away matches, with opportunity quality supporting a slight lean toward the away side receiving a quarter-goal handicap. Both teams have actually scored and conceded 1.8 goals per game at the same venue, supporting the over at 3.25, although the divergence between actual and expected goals and the low-scoring history at the same venue limit the strength of that view.

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Analysis versions (3)
  1. Version 3Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 14:39Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 2Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 13:08View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 15:13View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

2 - 190 minutes 2-1

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapKashiwa Reysol -0.25Win
Over / underOver 3.25Half loss
Correct score3-1Miss
Total goals4+Miss

Review

Final score 2-1. Asian handicap Kashiwa Reysol -0.25 → win; over/under Over 3.25 → half loss; correct score 3-1 → miss; total goals 4+ → miss.

Nov 07, 2026, 17:06