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KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi

Belgian Pro League· Round Regular Season - 11Finished
KVC Westerlo
1:5Sat, Nov 07 23:00Het Kuipje
Charleroi

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 3 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 21:25
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 3 · Update (2h before) · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 21:25

Data completeness 75%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Charleroi has averaged 1.91 expected goals and 1.13 expected goals conceded over its last 10 matches, ahead of KVC Westerlo’s 1.57 and 1.81, which tilts the Asian handicap toward Charleroi -0.25. KVC Westerlo has averaged 3.2 goals scored and 2.8 conceded over its last 5 home matches, supporting a lean toward the over on 3 total goals, but Charleroi’s 0.8 away goals conceded per match and KVC Westerlo’s actual results exceeding expected outcomes limit the strength of the judgment.

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Analysis versions (3)
  1. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 21:25Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 2Price updateNov 07, 2026, 07:46View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 23:21View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

1 - 590 minutes 1-5

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapKVC Westerlo +0.25Loss
Over / underOver 3Win
Correct score2-2Miss
Total goals4+Hit

Review

Final score 1-5. Asian handicap KVC Westerlo +0.25 → loss; over/under Over 3 → win; correct score 2-2 → miss; total goals 4+ → hit.

Nov 08, 2026, 01:06