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Cruzeiro vs Bahia

Brasileirão Série A· Round Regular Season - 34Finished
Cruzeiro
3:2Fri, Nov 06 08:30Governador Magalhães Pinto
Bahia

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 4 · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 08:19
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 4 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 08:19

Data completeness 100%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Over the last 5 home matches, Cruzeiro averaged 2.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, while Bahia averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over the last 5 away matches. The current 0.75-goal home handicap favors Cruzeiro, while the 3-goal total points line leans under. Bahia's 2.82 away expected goals exceed their 1.4 actual goals, while Cruzeiro's actual home performance has exceeded their expected goals for and against, limiting the strength of both assessments.

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Analysis versions (4)
  1. Version 4Lineup updateNov 06, 2026, 08:19Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 06, 2026, 06:48View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 2Price updateNov 06, 2026, 03:01View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 05, 2026, 08:39View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

3 - 290 minutes 3-2

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapBahia +0.75Half loss
Over / underUnder 3Loss
Correct score1-1Miss
Total goals2-3Miss

Review

Final score 3-2. Asian handicap Bahia +0.75 → half loss; over/under Under 3 → loss; correct score 1-1 → miss; total goals 2-3 → miss.

Nov 06, 2026, 10:36