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Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim

UEFA Europa League· Round League Stage - 4Finished
Palace
1:1Fri, Nov 06 01:45Selhurst Park
Hoffenheim

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 7 · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 01:35
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 7 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 01:35

Data completeness 90%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Crystal Palace have averaged 1.21 expected goals and 2.12 expected goals conceded over the last 10 games, versus 1.82 and 1.5 for Hoffenheim, so the support for the home side giving 0.75 goals is thin, leaning toward the visitors receiving. The 3.25 total leans slightly to the under, but Crystal Palace have averaged 2 goals conceded over their last 5 home games and Hoffenheim 2.2 conceded over their last 5 away games, which limits the strength of that view.

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Analysis versions (6)
  1. Version 7Lineup updateNov 06, 2026, 01:35Current

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  2. Version 5Update (2h before)Nov 06, 2026, 00:00View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 4Odds move rerunNov 05, 2026, 21:53View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  4. Version 3Price updateNov 05, 2026, 18:36View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  5. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 05, 2026, 08:48View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  6. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 05, 2026, 01:59View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

1 - 190 minutes 1-1

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapPalace -0.5Loss
Over / underUnder 3.25Win
Correct score2-1Miss
Total goals2-3Hit

Review

Final score 1-1. Asian handicap Palace -0.5 → loss; over/under Under 3.25 → win; correct score 2-1 → miss; total goals 2-3 → hit.

Nov 06, 2026, 03:51