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FC Porto vs Napoli

UEFA Champions League· Round League Stage - 4Finished
FC Porto
4:1Thu, Nov 05 04:00Estádio do Dragão
Napoli

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 5 · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 03:14
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 5 · Odds move rerun · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 03:14

Data completeness 78%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

FC Porto have generated 1.74 expected goals and conceded 1.1 over their last 10 matches, with 1.82 expected goals in their last 5 home matches. Napoli have conceded 1.6 goals per game in their last 5 away matches with a 0% clean sheet rate, while the current FC Porto -0.5 Asian handicap and 2.75 over/under are both close to even. The overall view leans toward FC Porto covering -0.5, while total goals lean toward over and the 2-3 goal range.

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Analysis versions (3)
  1. Version 5Odds move rerunNov 05, 2026, 03:14Current

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  2. Version 2Price updateNov 04, 2026, 18:46View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 04, 2026, 04:10View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

4 - 190 minutes 4-1

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapFC Porto -0.5Win
Over / underOver 2.5Win
Correct score2-1Miss
Total goals4+Hit

Review

Final score 4-1. Asian handicap FC Porto -0.5 → win; over/under Over 2.5 → win; correct score 2-1 → miss; total goals 4+ → hit.

Nov 05, 2026, 06:06