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AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid

UEFA Champions League· Round League Stage - 4Finished
AEK Athens FC
2:3Thu, Nov 05 01:45Allwyn Arena
Real Madrid

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 9 · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 01:32
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Market verdicts

Version 9 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 01:32

Data completeness 90%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

AEK Athens has conceded an average of 0 goals and 0.41 expected goals per match in its last five home matches, while Real Madrid has averaged 2.6 goals and 1.6 goals conceded per match in its last five away matches, favoring the home side on +2. The same-venue expected goals are 2.72 and 2.73 for the two teams, giving 3.75 goals a slight lean toward the over, although AEK Athens's home defensive record limits the strength of that judgment.

Per-market leans and evidence unlock with membership or pointsBack to unlock ↑

Analysis versions (9)
  1. Version 9Lineup updateNov 05, 2026, 01:32Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 8Price updateNov 05, 2026, 00:31View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 7Update (2h before)Nov 04, 2026, 23:59View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 6Price updateNov 04, 2026, 21:46View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 5Price updateNov 04, 2026, 14:46View this version

    Direction unchanged

  6. Version 4Price updateNov 04, 2026, 12:46View this version

    Direction unchanged

  7. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 04, 2026, 06:52View this version

    Direction unchanged

  8. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 04, 2026, 06:04View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  9. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 04, 2026, 01:59View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

2 - 390 minutes 2-3

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapAEK Athens FC +2Win
Over / underUnder 3.75Loss
Correct score1-2Miss
Total goals2-3Miss

Review

Final score 2-3. Asian handicap AEK Athens FC +2 → win; over/under Under 3.75 → loss; correct score 1-2 → miss; total goals 2-3 → miss.

Nov 05, 2026, 03:51