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Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama

Brasileirão Série A· Round Regular Season - 34Finished
Atletico Paranaense
1:3Thu, Nov 05 06:30Arena da Baixada
Vasco DA Gama

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 5 · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 06:13
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 5 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 06:13

Data completeness 100%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

The away team's last-10-match figures of 1.97 expected goals and 0.91 expected goals conceded are better than the home team's 1.24 and 1.65, but the home team's corresponding last-5-home-match figures are 1.96 and 0.73. The overall and venue-specific data conflict, so the home team's 0.25 handicap remains neutral. Both teams' actual goals conceded are higher than some expected defensive metrics, and the 2.5 over/under also remains without a side selection. There is only a low-intensity lean toward 1-1 and the 2-3 goal band.

Per-market leans and evidence unlock with membership or pointsBack to unlock ↑

Analysis versions (4)
  1. Version 5Lineup updateNov 05, 2026, 06:13Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 4Update (2h before)Nov 05, 2026, 04:43View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 04, 2026, 15:18View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  4. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 04, 2026, 06:43View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

1 - 390 minutes 1-3

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapAtletico Paranaense -0.25Loss
Over / underOver 2.5Win
Correct score2-1Miss
Total goals4+Hit

Review

Final score 1-3. Asian handicap Atletico Paranaense -0.25 → loss; over/under Over 2.5 → win; correct score 2-1 → miss; total goals 4+ → hit.

Nov 05, 2026, 08:36