Skip to content
Become a memberLog in

Flamengo vs Gremio

Brasileirão Série A· Round Regular Season - 34Free todayFinished
Flamengo
3:1Thu, Nov 05 06:30Estádio do Maracanã
Gremio
FreeVersion 6 · Lineup update · Nov 05, 2026, 06:10Final version · official line-ups includedData completeness 100%

The chief's verdict

Weighing 5 analysts

This match is more favorable to the under, mainly because Gremio's away attacking output is low and several of its regular attacking players are unavailable. However, Flamengo's main attacking players are all starting, so the possibility of Flamengo unilaterally driving the total higher cannot be ignored.

Over / under · Core direction

Under 3.75

Verdict probability

56%

Half lossLeanEdge+5.4 ptλ-blended model probability 52%

Price at analysis 1.90 (unchanged since Nov 05, 2026, 06:01)

Line at analysis: Under 3.75Closing main line: Under 3.75 · price 1.90 (Nov 05, 2026, 06:01)

Why

  1. Gremio has averaged 0.8 goals and 0.84 expected goals per match in its last 5 away games, so its away chance creation and conversion provide limited support for a higher total.
  2. Carlos Vinicius and C. Pavon are both unavailable, reducing Gremio's regular attacking options and making it harder for the away side to sustain threat.
  3. Flamengo has averaged 0.71 expected goals conceded per match in its last 5 home games, which aligns with Gremio's relatively weak away attack in limiting the away side's chances.

Watch out for

  • Flamengo has averaged 2.3 goals and 7.3 shots on target per match in its last 10 games, with Jorge Carrascal, Samuel Lino and Pedro Guilherme all starting, so the home team's own attacking threat is substantial.
  • Gremio has made 8 changes to its starting lineup, and goalkeeper Weverton is unavailable. If the changes first impair defensive coordination, the under assessment may not hold.
How do I read these numbers?
  • 56%: the chief’s final probability that Under 3.75 lands, after weighing every analyst (the quant model gives the same side 52%, a gap of +3.6 pt; main factor: 3.75线上融合后小球概率52%，市场隐含51%，融合权重0.1；只计融合后模型的一次有限支持。).
  • 51%: the market’s own view, converted from the consensus odds with the margin removed.
  • +5.4 pt: the verdict probability minus the market’s; a positive number means we rate this direction higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade 4 of 5 stars: computed by code from the evidence — one star each for a gap big enough for lean, a gap big enough for strong, agreeing with the model, a mostly verified factor ledger and complete data (at least one star). Not a hit rate: four stars does not mean four in five land.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Other market verdicts

  • Asian handicapGremio +2.554%PassWin
  • Correct score2-011%Miss
  • Total goals2–3 goals26%Miss
Full analysisOriginal text from the chief and the red team, evidence and risks for each market, and every analyst's view; heavier on jargon and numbers

Chief verdict, original text

The Asian handicap retains the direction of Gremio receiving two and a half goals, primarily based on Flamengo's actual home production, although differences in the two official lineups limit the size of any upward adjustment. The over/under retains the under direction based on Gremio's away attacking output and attacking absences, while accounting for the opposing pressure that could arise if Flamengo's principal attacking players start.

Weighting notes · Use the current de-vigged implied probability as the starting point, with factor adjustments approximated using the published integer implied probabilities. Do not count the model again after it has incorporated market information. The data and quantitative perspectives form the foundation, the intelligence analyst is used for personnel corrections, the market analyst is used to check pricing, and the tactical neutral opinion limits over-inference. Analyst probabilities are not mechanically averaged. The Asian handicap has moved to Flamengo -2.5, and both official starting lineups have been confirmed. Flamengo's attacking configuration offsets part of the support for Gremio, while the away team's squad-continuity risk is also relevant. Saúl Ñíguez and Jovane Cabral are now listed as substitutes and are no longer treated as unavailable or doubtful under the previous version. The direction and grade for both markets remain unchanged from the previous version, and the fact that the data was refreshed is not itself grounds for a revised judgment. The opposing estimates of 57% for Gremio and 60% for the under have reference value, but Flamengo's attack and the risks around Gremio's goalkeeper and squad coordination result in a more limited upward adjustment in this report.

Chief’s factor ledger

Each factor behind the chief’s call: the side it favours, how many points it moves the probability (negative for the other side), its source, and whether it is verified (structured data, an official source or several outlets agreeing, re-checked by the system).

The factor ledger is only in the report’s original language (Chinese)

Asian handicap · Gremio +2.5 · Pass

  • +3.0 pt弗拉门戈主场近5场场均进球2、失球0.8，样本内的实际主场产出不足以支持大幅提高主队打出深盘的概率。Gremio · Match data · Verified
  • +2.0 ptLucas Paqueta以MF、Injury列为存疑且未进入官方名单，G. Plata以MF、Yellow Cards列为缺阵，主队中场可用选择受到限制。Gremio · Lineups · Verified
  • +1.0 pt双方近3次交锋，弗拉门戈取得2胜1平，场均总进球1.67；交锋仅作低权重辅助，不据此否定主队实力优势。Gremio · Match data · Verified
  • +0.5 pt主队让两球半线上，融合后客队概率为53%，原模型客队概率为69%；融合权重为0.1，只将融合后结果计入一次。Gremio · Quant model · Verified
  • -2.0 ptCarlos Vinicius以FW、Yellow Cards，C. Pavon以FW、Muscle Injury，Weverton以GK、Yellow Cards列为缺阵，客队进攻与门将位置同时存在人员缺口。Flamengo · Lineups · Verified
  • -1.5 pt官方首发包含Jorge Carrascal、Samuel Lino和Pedro Guilherme，主队主要进攻人员出场，不能仅凭主场均值压低其扩大胜差的可能性。Flamengo · Lineups · Verified
  • -1.0 pt弗拉门戈近10场场均预期进球2.16、预期失球0.74，机会质量支持主队扩大优势。Flamengo · Match data · Verified
  • -1.0 pt官方首发对照中，主队调整2人、核心轮休0人，客队调整8人、核心轮休1人；客队阵容连续性较弱，但不把全部调整等同于实力下降。Flamengo · Match data · Verified

Over / under · Under 3.75 · Lean

  • +2.0 pt3.75线上融合后小球概率52%，市场隐含51%，融合权重0.1；只计融合后模型的一次有限支持。Under · Quant model · Verified
  • +2.0 pt格雷米奥客场近5场场均进球0.8、预期进球0.84，客场进攻产出对较高总进球线的支撑有限。Under · Match data · Verified
  • +2.0 ptCarlos Vinicius以FW、Yellow Cards，C. Pavon以FW、Muscle Injury列为缺阵，客队常用进攻选择减少。Under · Lineups · Verified
  • +1.0 ptLucas Paqueta以MF、Injury列为存疑且未进入官方名单，G. Plata以MF、Yellow Cards列为缺阵，主队中场可用选择受到限制。Under · Lineups · Verified
  • +1.0 pt双方近3次交锋场均总进球1.67，为小球提供低权重历史支持。Under · Match data · Verified
  • -1.0 pt弗拉门戈近10场场均进球2.3、预期进球2.16、射正7.3次，主队具备单方面推高总进球的进攻基础。Over · Match data · Verified
  • -1.0 ptJorge Carrascal、Samuel Lino和Pedro Guilherme均进入官方首发，同时客队Weverton以GK、Yellow Cards缺阵；主队进攻配置与客队门将人员变化构成小球的反向因素。Over · Lineups · Verified
  • -1.0 pt客队官方首发对照调整8人、核心轮休1人，防守协作存在不确定性；这一因素用于限制小球上调，也是不同意反方小球60%估计的依据。Over · Match data · Verified

Why Under 3.75

Over / under · Reasons, risks and what would flip it

Key evidence 5

  1. The current total-goals line is 3.75, with over at 1.95 and under at 1.90, corresponding to de-vigged implied probabilities of 49% and 51%. This report starts from the current price, with additional support coming from Gremio's away attack and personnel limitations rather than treating the higher line itself as evidence for the under.Market consensus · Nov 05, 2026, 06:01
  2. Gremio has averaged 0.8 goals and 0.84 expected goals per match in its last 5 away games, while Flamengo has averaged 0.71 expected goals conceded per match in its last 5 home games. These figures describe the away attack and home defense separately, and the averages against different opponents are not added to produce a total-goals forecast for this match.Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 06:01
  3. Carlos Vinicius (FW, Yellow Cards) and C. Pavon (FW, Muscle Injury) are both unavailable, while the home side's Lucas Paqueta (MF, Injury) is doubtful and absent from the official list. Jorge Carrascal, Samuel Lino and Pedro Guilherme are all starting, so the personnel information provides net support for the under, but is not enough to reduce the total-goals assessment substantially.Lineups · Nov 05, 2026, 06:01
  4. The blended model gives the under 52%, with a range of 51% to 53% and a blend weight of 0.1. This report adds only limited personnel and away-attack corrections to the model, does not retain the original model's 74% under estimate, and does not count the market information absorbed by the model again.Quant model · Nov 05, 2026, 06:01
  5. Flamengo has averaged 2.3 goals and 7.3 shots on target per match in its last 10 games and 2.26 expected goals per match in its last 5 home games. The home attack is the clearest counter-evidence to the under and is the main reason this report does not accept a higher under estimate.Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 06:01

Dissent 3

  • The market analyst gives the over 52%, mainly based on the continued reduction in the over price after the line increased. This opposing signal is retained, but the current price movement is already incorporated into the market starting point and is not counted again as additional probability.Market · Strength 3/5
  • The opposing view estimates the under at 60% and questions the quantified connection in the data analyst's 70% under estimate. This report accepts the challenge to the excessive probability but uses a more limited under adjustment because of Flamengo's attacking starters and the risk to Gremio's defensive continuity.Red team · Strength 4/5
  • The intelligence analyst remains neutral on over/under, noting that Flamengo's attacking core starting and Gremio's attacking absences point in opposite directions, while the effect of Gremio's lineup changes on both ends of the pitch is difficult to distinguish precisely.Intelligence · Strength 2/5

Main risks 3

  • Flamengo's principal attacking players are confirmed to be starting, so even if Gremio's scoring is restricted, better chance conversion may not be enough to suppress the match total.
  • Gremio's starting-lineup changes may first affect defensive coordination rather than only weakening the attack, so the lineup changes cannot all be interpreted as under factors.
  • The personnel gap in Gremio's goalkeeper position may increase goals-conceded volatility, offsetting the effect of the attacking absences on reducing the total.

Flip condition

If a subsequent verifiable personnel update further weakens Gremio's defensive setup, or confirms that its absent attacking players are available again, while Flamengo's principal attacking starters remain unchanged, switch to the over or pass.

Red team · 7 challenges

There are three main challenges to this report. First, the data analyst assigns 70% to both the Asian handicap and over/under, but the Asian handicap argument is still based on Flamengo -2.25 even though the current line is Flamengo -2.5. There is also no quantified connection between the 70% estimate and the market's de-vigged implied probability of 53%, while the 70% under estimate is well above the market's 51%. Second, the intelligence analyst assigns 53% and strength 4 to Flamengo based on Gremio's 8 lineup changes, while acknowledging that the lineup difference cannot be converted into a winning-margin probability. Both the market and quantitative views place Gremio +2.5 at 53%. Third, the market analyst interprets Flamengo's price returning to 2.05 after the handicap deepened as support for Flamengo, but the same figures produce a de-vigged implied probability that favors Gremio. The counter-scenarios are concentrated around a heavy Flamengo win at one end and a total of no more than 3 goals at the other.

The counterpoint to watch · Target Data analyst · Over / under · Challenge strength 4/5

The challenge and the chief’s response are not translated yet; shown in the report’s original language (Chinese)

数据分析师在大小球倾向小球，给小球 70%、强度 3，理由是双方同场地均值的进球合计不高、客队进攻对高总进球支撑有限。

他把主队近 5 个主场场均进球 2、失球 0.8 与客队近 5 个客场场均进球 0.8、失球 1.2 相加当作本场总进球预期，但这是两支球队对不同对手的均值，不是同一场比赛的口径。就在他自己的样本里，弗拉门戈近 5 场比分是 4-1、3-2、3-0、1-0、2-2，其中 4-1、3-2、2-2 三场总进球都达到 4 球，在 3.75 的线上大球有一场全赢、两场赢一半；他只把 4-1 写进反向证据，没有让它影响 70% 这个数字。市场当前去水隐含小球 51%、量化融合后小球 52%，70% 缺少对应的计算过程。

Reverse scenario · 弗拉门戈主场打出 3-1、3-2、4-1 这类比分，总进球达到 5 球及以上，大球全赢、小球全输。 · Reverse scenario probability 40%

6 more challenges (Asian handicap · Asian handicap · Asian handicap · Over / under · Correct score · Total goals)

Detailed verdict for each market

Win

Asian handicap

Gremio +2.5

Reference opinionPass

Gremio

54%

Why a pass · Chief's probability too close to the market

Chief and model agree, favourite side, gap of at least 1 point, but short of the recommendation bar: not a pick, for reference only.

Factors listed by the chief

  • +3.0 pt · 弗拉门戈主场近5场场均进球2、失球0.8，样本内的实际主场产出不足以支持大幅提高主队打出深盘的概率。
  • +2.0 pt · Lucas Paqueta以MF、Injury列为存疑且未进入官方名单，G. Plata以MF、Yellow Cards列为缺阵，主队中场可用选择受到限制。
  • +1.0 pt · 双方近3次交锋，弗拉门戈取得2胜1平，场均总进球1.67；交锋仅作低权重辅助，不据此否定主队实力优势。
  • +0.5 pt · 主队让两球半线上，融合后客队概率为53%，原模型客队概率为69%；融合权重为0.1，只将融合后结果计入一次。
  • -2.0 pt · Carlos Vinicius以FW、Yellow Cards，C. Pavon以FW、Muscle Injury，Weverton以GK、Yellow Cards列为缺阵，客队进攻与门将位置同时存在人员缺口。
  • -1.5 pt · 官方首发包含Jorge Carrascal、Samuel Lino和Pedro Guilherme，主队主要进攻人员出场，不能仅凭主场均值压低其扩大胜差的可能性。
  • -1.0 pt · 弗拉门戈近10场场均预期进球2.16、预期失球0.74，机会质量支持主队扩大优势。
  • -1.0 pt · 官方首发对照中，主队调整2人、核心轮休0人，客队调整8人、核心轮休1人；客队阵容连续性较弱，但不把全部调整等同于实力下降。

Flip condition

If a subsequent verifiable personnel update further weakens Gremio's defense or goalkeeper setup, while Flamengo's principal attacking starters remain unchanged, switch to Flamengo or pass.

Edge+1.2 pt
Miss

Correct score

Probability

If Gremio +2.5 and Under 3.75 come in (full or half win; 35.9% in total), the most likely is 2-0 (10.9%)

  • 2-011%
  • 2-17%
  • 1-07%
Most likely · 2-0
Miss

Total goals

Probability

If Gremio +2.5 and Under 3.75 come in (full or half win; 35.9% in total), the most likely is 2–3 goals (25.5%)

  • 0–1 goals10%
  • 2–3 goals26%
  • 4+ goals0%
Most likely · 2–3 goals

Analyst views

Challenges, the chief’s responses and uncertainties are not translated yet and are shown in the report’s original language (Chinese)

Analyst consensus

5 analysts: 1 agree · 3 cautious · 1 dissent

  • Data analystAgree
  • IntelligenceCautious
  • TacticsCautious
  • MarketDissent
  • QuantCautious
  • Red team: 7 challenges

Summary

Flamengo has averaged 2 goals and 0.8 goals conceded per match in its last 5 home games, while Gremio has averaged 0.8 goals and 1.2 goals conceded per match in its last 5 away games. With the home side at -2.25 and the total at 3.75, the view leans toward Gremio receiving the handicap and the under. Flamengo's recent 4-1 and 3-2 results are the main counter-evidence, with the scorelines and goal bands pointing toward 2-0 and 2-3 goals.

  • Asian handicapLean · GremioStrength 3/5Probability 70%
    • Flamengo has averaged 2 goals and 0.8 goals conceded per match in its last 5 home games and leads in attack, but this home record offers limited support for Flamengo -2.25.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 04:31
    • Flamengo's last 2 home results were 3-2 and 1-0 wins, corresponding to a failed -1.75 cover and a -1 push, showing that winning and covering a deeper handicap must be assessed separately.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 04:31
    • Gremio has averaged 1.2 goals conceded per match in its last 5 away games and won its latest away match 1-0. However, its 1.66 average expected goals conceded is higher than its actual goals conceded, so the defensive results cannot be treated directly as a sustained ability to restrict opponents.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 04:31
    • The head-to-head record of 1-0, 1-1 and 2-0 supports Flamengo's advantage, but these scorelines offer insufficient support for the current Flamengo -2.25 line; the head-to-head sample contains only 3 matches and carries limited weight.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 04:31

    Uncertainties · 格雷米奥客场实际失球低于预期失球，可能涉及扑救表现或对手终结效率波动；相关明细数据缺失，无法确认具体原因。 · 部分历史比赛缺少让球线，不能据此建立完整的同线盘路比较。 · 人员可用性数据缺失，无法判断当前阵容是否改变双方攻防能力。

  • Over / underLean · UnderStrength 3/5Probability 70%
    • Against the 3.75 total-goals line, Flamengo has averaged 2 goals and 0.8 goals conceded per match in its last 5 home games, while Gremio has averaged 0.8 goals and 1.2 goals conceded per match in its last 5 away games. Neither split consistently shows sustained high scoring.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 04:31
    • Flamengo has averaged 0.71 expected goals conceded per match in its last 5 home games, while Gremio has averaged 0.84 expected goals and 0.8 actual goals per match in its last 5 away games, limiting the away attack's support for a higher total.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 04:31
    • Gremio's last 2 results were 2-0 and 1-0, both under the 2.5 total-goals line. This provides recent support, but its earlier 2-4 defeat cannot be ignored.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 04:31
    • The 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.67 total goals, with scorelines of 0-1, 1-1 and 0-2, providing supplementary information that leans below the current 3.75 total-goals line rather than independently determining the direction.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 04:31

    Uncertainties · 格雷米奥客场实际失球低于预期失球，不能仅凭较低的实际失球判断其防守表现可以延续。 · 弗拉门戈对瓦斯科实际进球4、预期进球1.66，单场终结表现高于机会质量；是否延续缺少进一步依据。 · 详细进球时段、人员与裁判数据缺失，无法评估这些因素对比赛节奏的影响。

  • Correct scoreLean · 2-0Strength 2/5
    • Flamengo has averaged 2 goals and 2.26 expected goals per match in its last 5 home games, supporting a home goal total near 2; the actual scoreline against Mirassol was 2-0.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 04:31
    • Gremio has averaged 0.8 goals and 0.84 expected goals per match in its last 5 away games, while Flamengo has averaged 0.71 expected goals conceded per match in its last 5 home games, supporting scoreline scenarios in which the away team's goals are restricted.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 04:31
    • The head-to-head record includes a 0-2 Gremio–Flamengo result, and the most recent meeting was a 0-1 Gremio–Flamengo result, consistent with Flamengo's advantage and restricted Gremio scoring.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 04:31

    Uncertainties · 比分分布数据缺失，无法精确比较相邻比分的出现概率。 · 部分比赛预期进球数据缺失，且单场终结效率存在波动。 · 比分判断不作为让球或大小球方向的独立依据。

  • Total goalsLean · 2-3Strength 3/5
    • Flamengo has averaged 2 goals and 0.8 goals conceded per match in its last 5 home games, while Gremio has averaged 0.8 goals and 1.2 goals conceded per match in its last 5 away games. This supports a middle goal band rather than a scenario requiring both sides to score efficiently.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 04:31
    • Flamengo's last 5 home games include 2-1, 2-1 and 2-0, while Gremio's last 5 away games include 1-1 and 2-3, providing direct samples for the 2-3-goal band.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 04:31
    • The head-to-head record includes 1-1 and 0-2, which are compatible with the 2-3-goal band, but the sample contains only 3 matches and is not enough to determine the goal band independently.· Source Match data · Nov 05, 2026, 04:31

    Uncertainties · 总进球档的完整概率分布数据缺失。 · 进球档是分布中心判断，不用于替代对3.75总进球线的独立分析。

Analysis versions (6)
  1. Version 6Lineup updateNov 05, 2026, 06:10Current

    Direction unchanged

    • Asian handicap: Line -2.25 → -2.5
    • Asian handicap: Probability 53% → 54%
  2. Version 5Update (2h before)Nov 05, 2026, 04:49View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 4Odds move rerunNov 05, 2026, 03:11View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    • Asian handicap: Probability 55% → 53%
    • Over / under: Line 3.5 → 3.75
    • Over / under: Tier Pass → Lean
    • Over / under: Probability 55% → 56%
  4. Version 3Price updateNov 04, 2026, 21:01View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    • Over / under: Tier Lean → Pass
    • Total goals: Probability 29% → 27%
  5. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 04, 2026, 09:33View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    • Asian handicap: Line -2 → -2.25
    • Asian handicap: Probability 50% → 55%
    • Over / under: Probability 56% → 55%
    • Correct score: Pick 1-0 → 2-0
    • Correct score: Probability 8% → 12%
    • Total goals: Probability 17% → 29%
  6. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 04, 2026, 06:46View this version

    Direction unchanged

Recommendation history

When each market's recommendation was first published, kept, changed or withdrawn. For the record only; the official track record is unchanged.

Over / under

  1. First published · Version 1 · Nov 04, 2026, 06:46 · Under 3.5 Lean 56%
  2. Kept · Version 2 · Nov 04, 2026, 09:33 · Under 3.5 Lean 55%
  3. Withdrawn · Version 3 · Nov 04, 2026, 21:01 · Under 3.5 Lean 55%Reason: The side we favour is the underdog; favourite-side rule applies
  4. First published · Version 4 · Nov 05, 2026, 03:11 · Under 3.75 Lean 56%Reason: recommended again after a withdrawal
  5. Kept · Version 5 · Nov 05, 2026, 04:49 · Under 3.75 Lean 56%
  6. Kept · Version 6 · Nov 05, 2026, 06:10 · Under 3.75 Lean 56%

Asian handicap

  1. Reference opinionFirst published · Version 2 · Nov 04, 2026, 09:33 · Gremio +2.25 Pass 55%
  2. Reference opinionWithdrawn · Version 3 · Nov 04, 2026, 21:01 · Gremio +2.25 Pass 55%
  3. Reference opinionFirst published · Version 6 · Nov 05, 2026, 06:10 · Gremio +2.5 Pass 54%Reason: recommended again after a withdrawal

Settlement & review

Result

3 - 190 minutes 3-1

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapGremio +2.5Win
Over / underUnder 3.75Half loss
Correct score2-0Miss
Total goals2-3Miss

Review

Final score 3-1. Asian handicap Gremio +2.5 → win; over/under Under 3.75 → half loss; correct score 2-0 → miss; total goals 2-3 → miss.

Nov 05, 2026, 08:36

Bookmark
Log in to follow