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Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers

NBAFinished
Heat
145:125Sat, Oct 31 08:00
Pacers

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  • Point spreadPublished
  • Total pointsPublished
  • Version 2 · Generated Oct 30, 2026, 11:31
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Market verdicts

Version 2 · Odds move rerun · Generated Oct 30, 2026, 11:31

Data completeness 87%
Point spreadPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total pointsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Miami has averaged 125.6 points and allowed 123.2 points over the last 10 games, while their head-to-head games have averaged 244.33 total points, above the 237.5 line, creating a slight lean toward the over. On the point spread, Indiana's 109-114 and 102-110 losses this season provide support for taking +7.5 points, producing a slight lean toward the away side; each team's last 10 games include 8 games from the prior season, limiting overall conviction.

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Analysis versions (3)
  1. Version 3Odds move rerunOct 30, 2026, 22:30View this version

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 2Odds move rerunOct 30, 2026, 11:31Current

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Oct 30, 2026, 08:15View this version

    Direction unchanged