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Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets

NBAFinished
Mavericks
116:111Sat, Oct 31 08:00
Rockets

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  • Point spreadPublished
  • Total pointsPublished
  • Version 4 · Generated Oct 31, 2026, 06:10
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The pick and probability for all 2 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 4 · Update (2h before) · Generated Oct 31, 2026, 06:10

Data completeness 87%
Point spreadPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total pointsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Houston has a net efficiency of 5 over its last 10 games and Dallas has -4.5, but Dallas's recent home and head-to-head performance constrains Houston's 6.5-point line. The head-to-head average total of 218.75 supports the under, while Dallas's pace of 104.6 and 121.3 points allowed per game support the opposite direction. Both teams' last-10-game metrics include 8 games from the prior season, and player-condition and independent probability data are missing, so both markets are currently neutral.

Per-market leans and evidence unlock with membership or pointsBack to unlock ↑

Analysis versions (4)
  1. Version 4Update (2h before)Oct 31, 2026, 06:10Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 3Odds move rerunOct 31, 2026, 02:33View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 2Odds move rerunOct 30, 2026, 11:34View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Oct 30, 2026, 08:08View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

116 - 111

MarketPickOutcome
Point spreadMavericks +6.5Win
Total pointsUnder 224.5Loss

Review

Final score 116-111. point spread Mavericks +6.5 → win; total points Under 224.5 → loss.

Oct 31, 2026, 10:51