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Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks

NBAFree todayFinished
76ers
98:93Sat, Oct 31 07:30
Knicks
FreeVersion 2 · Odds move rerun · Oct 31, 2026, 01:31Data completeness 87%

The chief's verdict

Weighing 5 analysts

We put “Under 227” at about 53%; the market price implies about 50%, so we rate this side higher than the market does. Evidence grade 4 of 5 stars, tier “Lean”.

Total points · Core direction

Under 227

Verdict probability

53%

LeanEdge+3.0 ptModel probability shrunk toward the market 54%

Price at analysis 1.92 (unchanged since Oct 31, 2026, 01:21)

Line at analysis: Under 227Closing main line: Under 225 · price 1.92 (Oct 31, 2026, 07:21)The line has moved; this call only holds at Under 227

Why

  1. The current total is 227, with de-vigged implied probabilities of 50% on both sides. The judgment starts with the current pricing after the line has been reduced and cannot carry over the under space available at a higher line.Market consensus · Oct 31, 2026, 01:21
  2. The model assigns 54% to the under at the current line, with a range of 51% to 57% and a model weight of 0.3. The under direction is retained but reduced, leaving the conclusion above the market and below the model to reflect historical-sample and scoring-volatility risks.Quant model · Oct 31, 2026, 01:21
  3. Over the last 10 games, the 76ers recorded a pace of 95.4 and averaged 104.6 points, while the Knicks recorded a pace of 97.9 and allowed 102.8 points per game. The home team’s offensive average and the away team’s defensive performance jointly support the under rather than relying solely on a slow-pace label.Match data · Oct 31, 2026, 01:21

Watch out for

  • The Knicks scored 133 points in their latest road game, and the 76ers’ defensive efficiency over the last 10 games was 117.6. If the away team’s offense continues its recent performance, the under assessment will be weakened.
  • Three-point attempt rates for the two teams over the last 10 games were 39% and 42%, respectively. Changes in perimeter performance could cause a single game’s scoring to deviate from the historical averages.
How do I read these numbers?
  • 53%: the chief’s final probability that Under 227 lands, after weighing every analyst (the quant model gives the same side 54%, a gap of -0.9 pt; main factor: 尼克斯最新客场得到133分、失分127分，显示近期存在明显高得分表现，支持大球方向。).
  • 50%: the market’s own view, converted from the consensus odds with the margin removed.
  • +3.0 pt: the verdict probability minus the market’s; a positive number means we rate this direction higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade 4 of 5 stars: computed by code from the evidence — one star each for a gap big enough for lean, a gap big enough for strong, agreeing with the model, a mostly verified factor ledger and complete data (at least one star). Not a hit rate: four stars does not mean four in five land.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Other market verdicts

  • Point spreadKnicks -1.554%PassLine moved

Previously recommended / withdrawn

These markets were recommended in an earlier version of this analysis, then withdrawn or switched to the other side; the track record settles the final version and does not count them.

  • Total pointsUnder 227LeanWithdrawnFirst recommended Oct 31, 2026, 01:31 · withdrawn or switched Oct 31, 2026, 05:39
Full analysisOriginal text from the chief and the red team, evidence and risks for each market, and every analyst's view; heavier on jargon and numbers

Chief verdict, original text

The point spread favors the New York Knicks to cover 1.5 points, based on their advantages in offense, defense, rebounding, and head-to-head results over the last 10 games, although the weight assigned to prior-season samples is limited. The total points market favors the under at 227 points, based on historical pace and the Philadelphia 76ers’ offensive output, while retaining the reverse risk from the Knicks’ recent high-scoring performances.

Weighting notes · The current market’s de-vigged probabilities are the starting point. The model only incorporates signals after being pulled toward the market and no longer treats the raw probability and model range as additional supporting evidence. The data analyst and quantitative analyst each have a weight of 1, with verifiable facts given priority. The market analyst has a weight of 0.9, with neutral views limiting the degree of adjustment. The intelligence analyst has a weight of 0.85, but a single-source injury report does not move the probability. The tactics analyst has a weight of 0.7; the direction is adopted, but the 60% magnitude is not. The opposing view of 54% for the away team agrees with this assessment, while 52% for the under is more conservative than this view. Compared with the previous version, the total points line has been reduced to 227 and has been re-evaluated under the current model, but the direction and strength recommendations for both markets remain unchanged. Recollecting the statistical and head-to-head data does not represent a change in the findings, and workflow updates are not treated as new evidence about the teams. Official starting lineups and projected minutes played: data missing.

Chief’s factor ledger

Each factor behind the chief’s call: the side it favours, how many points it moves the probability (negative for the other side), its source, and whether it is verified (structured data, an official source or several outlets agreeing, re-checked by the system).

The factor ledger is only in the report’s original language (Chinese)

Point spread · Knicks -1.5 · Pass

  • +3.0 pt向市场收缩后的模型客队概率为56%，原始概率为68%，模型权重为0.3；只采用有限的客队方向调整，不把收缩前的幅度直接用于结论。Knicks · Quant model · Verified
  • +2.0 pt近10场尼克斯每百回合净胜9.9分、篮板率53%，76人每百回合净负8.3分、篮板率45%；攻防与篮板表现共同支持客队。Knicks · Match data · Verified
  • +1.0 pt所列6场交锋均由尼克斯获胜；作为对位补充，不把交锋胜率直接当作当前让分打出概率。Knicks · Match data · Verified
  • -2.0 pt76人最新一场得到114分并击败步行者，尼克斯最新客场失分127分；近期表现为主队提供反向支持。76ers · Match data · Verified
  • -1.0 pt近10场76人罚球率27%，尼克斯26%；主队较高的罚球率为其维持进攻提供反向依据。76ers · Match data · Verified
  • —76人近10场包含9场往季比赛，尼克斯包含8场；历史指标对本场阵容的代表性有限，限制客队方向调整幅度。Neutral · Match data · Verified
  • —Jose Alvarado缺阵报道仅有1家出版方，核验等级为单一来源，可靠度0.4；不据此额外量化主队优势。Neutral · News · Unverified

Total points · Under 227 · Lean

  • +3.0 pt当前盘口线上，模型向市场收缩后给小球54%，原始概率为63%，模型权重0.3；仅保留有限的小球方向调整。Under · Quant model · Verified
  • +2.0 pt近10场76人节奏95.4、场均得分104.6，尼克斯节奏97.9、场均失分102.8；这些表现仍支持小球，不因尼克斯最新一场高得分就全部撤销。Under · Match data · Verified
  • +1.0 pt所列6场交锋场均总分225.5，为小球提供有限的对位补充，但不据此推算盘口概率。Under · Match data · Verified
  • -2.0 pt尼克斯最新客场得到133分、失分127分，显示近期存在明显高得分表现，支持大球方向。Over · Match data · Verified
  • -1.0 pt近10场76人防守效率117.6，尼克斯场均得分112.6；客队进攻与主队防守组合构成大球支持。Over · Match data · Verified
  • —76人近10场包含9场往季比赛，尼克斯包含8场；历史节奏的即时代表性有限，不扩大其小球推动幅度。Neutral · Match data · Verified
  • —Jaylen Brown出战存疑报道仅有1家出版方，可靠度0.4；不把未经确认的缺阵假设作为小球调整依据。Neutral · News · Unverified

Why Under 227

Total points · Reasons, risks and what would flip it

Further evidence 2

  1. The Knicks scored 133 points and allowed 127 points in their latest road game, while the 76ers’ defensive efficiency over the last 10 games was 117.6. These reverse factors limit the under probability, and historical pace should not be treated as a single-game scoring ceiling.Match data · Oct 31, 2026, 01:21
  2. The 6 listed head-to-head games averaged 225.5 total points, providing only limited support for the under. Scoring in those matchups fluctuated, so this average is not treated as a prediction of the total for this game.Match data · Oct 31, 2026, 01:21

Dissent 2

  • The opposing view assigns 52% to the under, considering the model range close to even and viewing the Knicks’ scoring and both teams’ perimeter attempt rates as reverse risks. The slightly higher under estimate is retained because the last 10 games’ pace and the 76ers’ offensive performance still support the same direction.Red team · Strength 3/5
  • The tactics analyst assigns 60% to the under, based primarily on the teams’ pace, the 76ers’ offensive average, and the Knicks’ defensive performance. The direction is retained, but the probability magnitude is not adopted.Tactics · Strength 2/5

Further risks 1

  • The statistical window contains a large number of prior-season games, so the pace and available lineups for this game may differ from the historical sample.

Flip condition

If the official lineups show that the 76ers’ defensive rotation is limited, or that the Knicks’ offensive rotation has been strengthened, weakening the principal support from a slow pace and away-team defensive suppression, the assessment changes to the over or pass.

Red team · 6 challenges

The three strongest challenges are as follows: the tactics analyst used only aggregate measures such as rebounding rate and average points scored and allowed, while also listing several reverse factors, to assign the away team a 60% chance to cover 1.5 points, an extent that lacks calibration. The quantitative analyst’s 56% for the away team falls entirely within the stated 53% to 59% range, and the model’s expected margin is far from the 1.5-point line, making the figure look more like the output of the shrinkage formula. The intelligence analyst’s 54% for the home team conflicts with the 20% home win rate over the last 5 home games listed in the same analysis, while much of the supporting evidence comes from a single source or lacks clear injury positions. After combining the views, the point spread remains slightly tilted toward the away team but with a reduced magnitude, while the total points market maintains a weak under lean.

The counterpoint to watch · Target Tactics · Total points · Challenge strength 3/5

The challenge and the chief’s response are not translated yet; shown in the report’s original language (Chinese)

战术分析师 · 大小分：小分 60%（227 分线）

60% 的小分倾向主要由节奏标签与场均得失分均值推出，但这两类量本身不控制方差：客队场均得分 112.6、主队场均失分 113.2 都在抬总分，分析师自己已列为反向依据；客队三分出手占比 41.6%、主队 39.3%，外线占比高的球队单场总分更容易出现大的摆动。他引用的交锋场均总分 225.5 只比盘口线低一点，一场加时或一段得分高潮就能覆盖。在这些条件下给到距五五开十个百分点偏离的概率，明显高于依据能支撑的程度。

Reverse scenario · 总分 228 分及以上，大分全赢。 · Reverse scenario probability 43%

5 more challenges (Point spread · Point spread · Point spread · Total points · Point spread)

Detailed verdict for each market

Point spread

Knicks -1.5

Reference opinionPass

Knicks

54%

Why a pass · Change since the previous version did not clear the tier threshold

Chief and model agree, favourite side, gap of at least 1 point, but short of the recommendation bar: not a pick, for reference only.

Factors listed by the chief

  • +3.0 pt · 向市场收缩后的模型客队概率为56%，原始概率为68%，模型权重为0.3；只采用有限的客队方向调整，不把收缩前的幅度直接用于结论。
  • +2.0 pt · 近10场尼克斯每百回合净胜9.9分、篮板率53%，76人每百回合净负8.3分、篮板率45%；攻防与篮板表现共同支持客队。
  • +1.0 pt · 所列6场交锋均由尼克斯获胜；作为对位补充，不把交锋胜率直接当作当前让分打出概率。
  • -2.0 pt · 76人最新一场得到114分并击败步行者，尼克斯最新客场失分127分；近期表现为主队提供反向支持。
  • -1.0 pt · 近10场76人罚球率27%，尼克斯26%；主队较高的罚球率为其维持进攻提供反向依据。
  • — · 76人近10场包含9场往季比赛，尼克斯包含8场；历史指标对本场阵容的代表性有限，限制客队方向调整幅度。
  • — · Jose Alvarado缺阵报道仅有1家出版方，核验等级为单一来源，可靠度0.4；不据此额外量化主队优势。

Flip condition

If the official lineups show that key Knicks rotation players are limited in a way that materially weakens the team’s rebounding and defensive advantages, the assessment changes to the home team or pass.

Edge+3.3 pt

Analyst views

Challenges, the chief’s responses and uncertainties are not translated yet and are shown in the report’s original language (Chinese)

Analyst consensus

5 analysts: 1 agree · 4 cautious · 0 dissent

  • Data analystCautious
  • IntelligenceCautious
  • TacticsCautious
  • MarketCautious
  • QuantAgree
  • Red team: 6 challenges

Summary

The Knicks have outscored opponents by 9.9 points per 100 possessions over their last 10 games, while the 76ers have been outscored by 8.3 points, so the historical data favors the away team. The teams’ head-to-head games have averaged 225.5 total points, below the 228.5-point line, creating a modest under signal. The last 10 games include 8 and 9 prior-season games, respectively, while personnel and line probability calibration data are missing, so both markets remain neutral.

  • Point spreadLean · NeutralStrength 1/5
    • The home team is receiving 1.5 points. Over the last 10 games, the Knicks have outscored opponents by 9.9 points per 100 possessions and the 76ers have been outscored by 8.3 points; the Knicks’ offensive efficiency of 115 and defensive efficiency of 105.1 both exceed the 76ers’ 109.3 and 117.6, so the data direction supports the away team.· Source Match data · Oct 30, 2026, 07:31
    • The head-to-head record contains 6 games, with the 76ers winning 0 and the Knicks winning 6. The 76ers’ most recent home games against the Knicks ended 114-144 and 94-108, so the historical matchup does not support choosing the home team based on home-court status alone.· Source Match data · Oct 30, 2026, 07:31
    • The latest fact supporting the home team is the 76ers’ 114-109 win over the Portland Trail Blazers. The Knicks won their latest road game 133-127 but allowed 127 points, showing that their recent defensive performance has not consistently matched their last 10 games’ average of 102.8 points allowed.· Source Match data · Oct 30, 2026, 07:31
    • The 76ers’ last 10 games include 9 prior-season games, while the Knicks’ last 10 games include 8. The 76ers’ last 5 home games at the same venue also all came from prior seasons. The historical advantage favors the away team, but the sample available to test whether it continues in the current season is limited, so the point spread conclusion remains neutral.· Source Match data · Oct 30, 2026, 07:31

    Uncertainties · 主队受让方向在当前盘口线上的可校准概率：数据缺失；未将历史胜负记录直接替代让分打出概率。 · 人员可用性及预计轮换：数据缺失，无法验证往季攻防差距是否适用于本场。 · 历史让分线及让分结果：数据缺失，无法核验两队相近盘口下的表现。

  • Total pointsLean · NeutralStrength 1/5
    • The current total is 228.5 points. The 76ers averaged 104.6 points scored and 113.2 points allowed over their last 10 games, while the Knicks averaged 112.6 points scored and 102.8 points allowed. The 76ers’ pace was 95.4 and the Knicks’ was 97.9, making the under worth closer attention based on historical scoring and pace.· Source Match data · Oct 30, 2026, 07:31
    • The 6 head-to-head games averaged 225.5 total points, below the current 228.5, but the same matchup has included a 114-144 loss for the 76ers and a 94-108 loss, showing clear variation in scoring across those games.· Source Match data · Oct 30, 2026, 07:31
    • The latest fact supporting the over is the Knicks’ 133-127 road win over the Chicago Bulls, while the 76ers’ defensive efficiency over the last 10 games was 117.6. However, the Knicks’ previous game against the Detroit Pistons ended 111-97, so their latest performances have not consistently been high-scoring.· Source Match data · Oct 30, 2026, 07:31
    • The 76ers’ and Knicks’ three-point attempt rates were 0.39 and 0.42, respectively, but game-by-game three-point shooting performance was not provided. The last 10 games also include 9 and 8 prior-season games, respectively, so the available data is insufficient to convert the historical under tendency into a reliable probability for the current 228.5-point line, and the view remains neutral.· Source Match data · Oct 30, 2026, 07:31

    Uncertainties · 大分方向在当前盘口线上的可校准概率：数据缺失。 · 本赛季独立的节奏、攻防效率和篮板率汇总：数据缺失。 · 逐场回合数、三分命中率及加时信息：数据缺失，无法解释最新高比分的具体成因。

Analysis versions (4)
  1. Version 4Update (2h before)Oct 31, 2026, 05:39View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    • Total points: Line 226.5 → 225.5
    • Total points: Tier Lean → Pass
    • Total points: Probability 53% → 52%
  2. Version 3Odds move rerunOct 31, 2026, 04:28View this version

    Direction unchanged

    • Point spread: Line 1.5 → 3.5
    • Point spread: Probability 54% → 53%
    • Total points: Line 227 → 226.5
  3. Version 2Odds move rerunOct 31, 2026, 01:31Current

    Direction or tier changed

    • Point spread: Probability 53% → 54%
    • Total points: Line 228.5 → 227
    • Total points: Tier Pass → Lean
  4. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Oct 30, 2026, 07:39View this version

    Direction unchanged

Recommendation history

When each market's recommendation was first published, kept, changed or withdrawn. For the record only; the official track record is unchanged.

Point spread

  1. Reference opinionKept · Version 2 · Oct 31, 2026, 01:31 · Knicks -1.5 Pass 54%
  2. Reference opinionChanged · Version 3 · Oct 31, 2026, 04:28 · Knicks -3.5 Pass 53%Reason: line changed
  3. Reference opinionWithdrawn · Version 4 · Oct 31, 2026, 05:39 · Knicks -3.5 Pass 53%

Total points

  1. First published · Version 2 · Oct 31, 2026, 01:31 · Under 227 Lean 53%
  2. Changed · Version 3 · Oct 31, 2026, 04:28 · Under 226.5 Lean 53%Reason: line changed
  3. Withdrawn · Version 4 · Oct 31, 2026, 05:39 · Under 226.5 Lean 53%Reason: Chief's probability too close to the market
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