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Le Havre vs Lorient

Ligue 1· Round Regular Season - 10Scheduled
Le Havre
Mon, Nov 0900:15Stade Océane
Lorient

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 2 · Generated Nov 08, 2026, 06:02
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 2 · Odds move rerun · Generated Nov 08, 2026, 06:02

Data completeness 88%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Over Le Havre's last 5 home matches, it has conceded 2.2 goals and recorded 2.05 expected goals conceded per match; over Lorient's last 5 away matches, it has conceded 0.4 goals and recorded 0.85 expected goals conceded per match, with a lean toward the away side at the pick'em line. The 2.25 total points market has a slight lean toward over, primarily because of Le Havre's defensive exposure and both teams' actual goals falling below expectations, but Lorient's 2.7 shots on target per match over the last 10 matches constrain the case for more goals.

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Analysis versions (2)
  1. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 08, 2026, 06:02Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 08, 2026, 00:29View this version

    Direction unchanged