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Heart Of Midlothian vs Falkirk

Scottish Premiership· Round Regular Season - 13Scheduled
Heart Of Midlothian
Sun, Nov 0823:00Tynecastle Park
Falkirk

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 1 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 23:31
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Market verdicts

Version 1 · Initial (pre-match) · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 23:31

Data completeness 88%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Heart Of Midlothian have averaged 2.4 goals and 2.21 expected goals per home match over the last 5 home games. Falkirk have averaged 0.82 expected goals and 1.78 expected goals conceded per away match over the last 5 away games, giving the handicap direction a slight lean toward Heart Of Midlothian. Falkirk have actually conceded 1 goal per game over their last 10 matches, below their 1.83 expected goals conceded, raising questions about the sustainability of their recent defensive record. The 3-goal line therefore has a slight lean toward the over, but Falkirk's recent away wins and the 2.4 goals per game average in the head-to-head meetings both limit the strength of that assessment.

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Analysis versions (1)
  1. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 07, 2026, 23:31Current

    Direction unchanged