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Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano

La Liga· Round Regular Season - 12Scheduled
Real Sociedad
Sun, Nov 0823:15Anoeta Stadium
Rayo

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 1 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 23:29
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Market verdicts

Version 1 · Initial (pre-match) · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 23:29

Data completeness 88%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Real Sociedad have averaged 1.4 goals and conceded 1.8 per match over their last 5 home games, providing limited support for a 0.75-goal handicap and producing a mild lean toward Rayo Vallecano receiving the handicap. Rayo Vallecano have conceded 2.6 goals per match over their last 5 away games without keeping a clean sheet, moving the total points line of 3 slightly toward the over. Real Sociedad have averaged 2.3 goals over their last 10 games against average expected goals of 1.56, while Rayo Vallecano's away goals conceded also exceed their expected goals conceded of 1.8; efficiency variation limits the strength of the directional assessment.

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Analysis versions (1)
  1. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 07, 2026, 23:29Current

    Direction unchanged