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Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra

Liga Profesional Argentina· Round Clausura - 16Finished
Independiente
2:1Sat, Nov 07 06:15Libertadores de America
Deportivo Riestra

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 5 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 05:58
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Market verdicts

Version 5 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 05:58

Data completeness 100%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Independiente average 0.4 goals per game over their last 5 home matches and Deportivo Riestra concede 0.6 per game over their last 5 away matches, so with the home side giving half-ball/one-ball we lean toward the away side receiving. The over/under at 1.75 leans slightly over: the two sides' expected goals per game over the last 10 matches are 1.21 and 0.9 respectively, but weak actual finishing limits the strength of the judgment.

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Analysis versions (5)
  1. Version 5Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 05:58Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 4Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 04:23View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 02:34View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 06, 2026, 14:56View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 06:27View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

2 - 190 minutes 2-1

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapDeportivo Riestra +0.75Half loss
Over / underUnder 1.75Loss
Correct score0-0Miss
Total goals0-1Miss

Review

Final score 2-1. Asian handicap Deportivo Riestra +0.75 → half loss; over/under Under 1.75 → loss; correct score 0-0 → miss; total goals 0-1 → miss.

Nov 07, 2026, 08:21