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Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield

Liga Profesional Argentina· Round Clausura - 16Finished
Union Santa Fe
2:0Sat, Nov 07 06:15Estadio 15 de Abril
Velez Sarsfield

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 3 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 04:26
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Market verdicts

Version 3 · Update (2h before) · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 04:26

Data completeness 70%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Union Santa Fe has scored 2.2 goals per game and recorded 1.66 expected goals over its last 5 home matches, while Velez Sarsfield has corresponding figures of 1.8 and 1.17 over its last 5 away matches, leaving the level handicap slightly tilted toward the home side. The sides have conceded 1.6 and 1.2 goals per game at the respective venues, respectively, and recent 3-1, 5-0 and 2-2 results support over 2.25, although actual scoring and conceding differ from the expected figures and the expected-data samples are incomplete.

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Analysis versions (3)
  1. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 04:26Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 2Price updateNov 06, 2026, 20:46View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 06:24View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

2 - 090 minutes 2-0

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapVelez Sarsfield 0Loss
Over / underOver 2.25Half loss
Correct score1-2Miss
Total goals2-3Hit

Review

Final score 2-0. Asian handicap Velez Sarsfield 0 → loss; over/under Over 2.25 → half loss; correct score 1-2 → miss; total goals 2-3 → hit.

Nov 07, 2026, 08:21