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VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen

Bundesliga· Round Regular Season - 9Finished
Stuttgart
1:0Sun, Nov 08 01:30MHP Arena
Bremen

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 5 · Generated Nov 08, 2026, 01:10
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Market verdicts

Version 5 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 08, 2026, 01:10

Data completeness 100%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

VfB Stuttgart scored 2 goals and conceded 1.4 per match in their last 5 home matches, while Werder Bremen scored 1.4 and conceded 2 per match in their last 5 away matches; Werder Bremen's recent scorelines have been relatively high, while VfB Stuttgart's recent form has fluctuated noticeably. Evidence on both sides of the Asian handicap is close, over/under shows only a slight under lean at the 3.5 line, and correct score and total-goals bands are more concentrated around 1-1 and 2-3.

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Analysis versions (5)
  1. Version 5Lineup updateNov 08, 2026, 01:10Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 4Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 23:56View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 15:31View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 13:38View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 07, 2026, 01:44View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

1 - 090 minutes 1-0

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapBremen +0.5Loss
Over / underOver 3.5Loss
Correct score2-2Miss
Total goals4+Miss

Review

Final score 1-0. Asian handicap Bremen +0.5 → loss; over/under Over 3.5 → loss; correct score 2-2 → miss; total goals 4+ → miss.

Nov 08, 2026, 03:36