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RB Leipzig vs Augsburg

Bundesliga· Round Regular Season - 9Finished
Leipzig
5:2Sat, Nov 07 22:30Leipzig Red Bull Arena
Augsburg

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 2 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 17:26
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 2 · Price update · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 17:26

Data completeness 88%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Leipzig has averaged 3.60 goals, 0.60 goals conceded, and an 80% clean-sheet rate in its last 5 home matches, while Augsburg has averaged 2.60 goals conceded with a 0% clean-sheet rate in its last 5 away matches, supporting the home side at -1.25. However, Augsburg has averaged 2.40 goals away, making the 3.75 total-goals line relatively high; therefore, the Asian handicap receives a moderate lean, while the over/under receives only a weak lean toward the over.

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Analysis versions (5)
  1. Version 5Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 22:15View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  2. Version 4Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 21:27View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  3. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 20:45View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 2Price updateNov 07, 2026, 17:26Current

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 22:44View this version

    Direction unchanged