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Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK

Allsvenskan· Round Regular Season - 28Finished
Orgryte IS
0:0Sun, Nov 08 00:30Gamla Ullevi
Vasteras SK FK

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 2 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 19:23
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 2 · Odds move rerun · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 19:23

Data completeness 88%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

The home team has conceded 2 goals and recorded 2.4 expected goals conceded per game over its last 10 matches, while the away team has recorded 5.3 shots on target and conceded 0.6 goals per game. The overall data supports Vasteras SK FK receiving +0.25, but the away team's 1.48 expected goals and 1.54 expected goals conceded per match away limit the strength of that view. Both teams' home and away attacking and defensive figures support a slight lean toward over, while the away team's actual goals conceded is below its expected goals conceded; recent clean sheets alone should not be used to infer the total-goals direction.

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Analysis versions (4)
  1. Version 4Lineup updateNov 08, 2026, 00:12View this version

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 22:44View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 19:23Current

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 07, 2026, 00:41View this version

    Direction unchanged