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Alverca vs Casa Pia

Primeira Liga· Round Regular Season - 11Finished
Alverca
1:1Sun, Nov 08 02:00Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Casa Pia

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 3 · Generated Nov 08, 2026, 00:30
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Market verdicts

Version 3 · Odds move rerun · Generated Nov 08, 2026, 00:30

Data completeness 75%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Alverca have averaged 1.39 expected goals per match over their last 10, above Casa Pia's 0.8, but Alverca have averaged only 1 goal per match over their last 5 home matches, resulting in only a light lean toward the home side at -0.75. Casa Pia have averaged 0.8 goals conceded and 1.65 expected goals conceded per away match over their last 5, raising doubts about the sustainability of their low goals-conceded record; the 2.5-goal line still leans slightly toward the under, but not strongly (data source: stats:api_sports; collection date: November 7).

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Analysis versions (5)
  1. Version 5Lineup updateNov 08, 2026, 01:41View this version

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 4Update (2h before)Nov 08, 2026, 00:49View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 08, 2026, 00:30Current

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 17:52View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  5. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 07, 2026, 02:33View this version

    Direction unchanged