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Yokohama F. Marinos vs Fagiano Okayama

J1 League· Round Regular Season - 14Finished
Yokohama F. Marinos
1:1Sat, Nov 07 13:00Nissan Stadium
Fagiano Okayama

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 3 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 12:50
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Market verdicts

Version 3 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 12:50

Data completeness 100%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Yokohama F. Marinos have averaged 2 goals and 2.33 expected goals per match over their last 5 home matches. Fagiano Okayama have averaged 1.6 goals conceded per match over their last 5 away matches, with a 0 clean-sheet rate. The overall tendency favors the home side at -0.25 and the over at 2.5 total goals. Yokohama F. Marinos' actual goals conceded per match over their last 10 matches, at 1, are lower than their 1.73 expected goals conceded, indicating a divergence between defensive results and opportunity quality. Combined with the head-to-head average of 1 total goal, this supports a moderate strength of conviction.

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Analysis versions (1)
  1. Version 3Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 12:50Current

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

1 - 190 minutes 1-1

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapYokohama F. Marinos -0.25Half loss
Over / underOver 2.5Loss
Correct score2-1Miss
Total goals4+Miss

Review

Final score 1-1. Asian handicap Yokohama F. Marinos -0.25 → half loss; over/under Over 2.5 → loss; correct score 2-1 → miss; total goals 4+ → miss.

Nov 07, 2026, 15:06