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Shimizu S-pulse vs Tokyo Verdy

J1 League· Round Regular Season - 14Finished
Shimizu S-pulse
0:1Sat, Nov 07 12:00IAI Stadium Nihondaira
Tokyo Verdy

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 4 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 11:39
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 4 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 11:39

Data completeness 95%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Shimizu S-pulse has averaged 2 goals conceded per match over its last 10 games and 2.17 expected goals conceded, while its recent attacking output includes single-match expected goals of 0.57, 0.59 and 0.21, so the Asian handicap shows a weak lean toward Tokyo Verdy. Both teams have averaged 0.9 goals per match over their last 10 games, but their defenses have exposed a substantial number of opportunities, creating a weak lean toward over on the 2.25 over/under. The correct-score and total-goals-band outputs lean toward 1-1 and 2-3 goals, respectively.

Per-market leans and evidence unlock with membership or pointsBack to unlock ↑

Analysis versions (4)
  1. Version 4Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 11:39Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 10:13View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 02:02View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  4. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 12:16View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

0 - 190 minutes 0-1

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapTokyo Verdy 0Win
Over / underOver 2.25Loss
Correct score1-2Miss
Total goals2-3Miss

Review

Final score 0-1. Asian handicap Tokyo Verdy 0 → win; over/under Over 2.25 → loss; correct score 1-2 → miss; total goals 2-3 → miss.

Nov 07, 2026, 14:06