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Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga

J1 League· Round Regular Season - 14Finished
Nagoya Grampus
0:2Sat, Nov 07 13:00Toyota Stadium
Kyoto Sanga

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 4 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 12:40
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Market verdicts

Version 4 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 12:40

Data completeness 95%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Nagoya Grampus have scored 1.6 and conceded 1.4 goals per game over their last 5 home matches, with 1.88 expected goals at home. Kyoto Sanga have scored 1 and conceded 1.8 goals per game away, with 2.13 expected goals conceded away, leaving the home side -0.5 with a slight advantage. Their 4 head-to-head meetings have averaged 2.5 total goals, but recent home and away matches have included scorelines of 3 or 4 goals. The over/under leans toward the over, the central scoreline distribution is 1-1, and the goals band leans toward 2-3 goals.

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Analysis versions (4)
  1. Version 4Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 12:40Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 11:09View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 2Price updateNov 07, 2026, 08:46View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 13:07View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

0 - 290 minutes 0-2

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapNagoya Grampus -0.5Loss
Over / underOver 2.75Loss
Correct score2-1Miss
Total goals4+Miss

Review

Final score 0-2. Asian handicap Nagoya Grampus -0.5 → loss; over/under Over 2.75 → loss; correct score 2-1 → miss; total goals 4+ → miss.

Nov 07, 2026, 15:06