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Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki

J1 League· Round Regular Season - 14Finished
Avispa Fukuoka
1:1Sat, Nov 07 14:00Best Denki Stadium
V-varen Nagasaki

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 3 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 13:42
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Market verdicts

Version 3 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 13:42

Data completeness 95%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Avispa Fukuoka have averaged 0.8 goals scored and 2 goals conceded over the last 10 matches, while V-varen Nagasaki have averaged 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded over their last 5 away matches. Fukuoka's recent attacking weakness and Nagasaki's poor away form offset each other, leaving the Asian handicap with only a slight lean toward Nagasaki +0.25. Both teams' actual goals-conceded figures support over 2.25, but lower expected goals conceded and Nagasaki's weak away attack limit the strength of that assessment.

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Analysis versions (2)
  1. Version 3Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 13:42Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 2Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 12:13View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

1 - 190 minutes 1-1

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapV-varen Nagasaki +0.25Half win
Over / underOver 2.25Half loss
Correct score1-2Miss
Total goals4+Miss

Review

Final score 1-1. Asian handicap V-varen Nagasaki +0.25 → half win; over/under Over 2.25 → half loss; correct score 1-2 → miss; total goals 4+ → miss.

Nov 07, 2026, 16:06