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ST Johnstone vs Dundee

Scottish Premiership· Round Regular Season - 13Finished
ST Johnstone
2:1Sat, Nov 07 23:00McDiarmid Park
Dundee

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 2 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 19:20
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 2 · Odds move rerun · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 19:20

Data completeness 81%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

ST Johnstone's last 10 matches have averaged 1.1 goals and 1.15 expected goals per match, while its last 5 home matches have averaged 1.2 goals scored and conceded. Dundee's last 10 matches have averaged 1.7 goals and 4.8 shots on target, but its last 5 away matches have produced 1.12 expected goals. The level handicap has close data on both sides, so the view remains neutral; the 2.75-goal total is supported by Dundee's recent run of overs and the higher expected-goals-conceded figures for both teams, so the view leans toward the over, with correct score and total-goals band taken as 1-1 and 2-3 goals respectively.

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Analysis versions (5)
  1. Version 5Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 22:39View this version

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 4Price updateNov 07, 2026, 22:19View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 21:18View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 19:20Current

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 23:21View this version

    Direction unchanged