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Valencia vs Real Madrid

La Liga· Round Regular Season - 12Finished
Valencia
0:3Sun, Nov 08 04:00Estadio de Mestalla
Real Madrid

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 4 · Generated Nov 08, 2026, 03:38
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Market verdicts

Version 4 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 08, 2026, 03:38

Data completeness 95%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Real Madrid has averaged 2.6 goals and 1.6 goals conceded over its last 5 away matches, while Valencia has averaged 0.6 goals and 2.2 goals conceded over its last 5 home matches. The away attack and home defense support a slight lean toward over at the 3.25 line. Considering that both teams have recently recorded several narrow margins of victory, the 1.75 handicap has a slight lean toward the home side receiving the handicap, although Real Madrid's risk of a wider win remains substantial.

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Analysis versions (4)
  1. Version 4Lineup updateNov 08, 2026, 03:38Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 08, 2026, 02:12View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 2Price updateNov 07, 2026, 18:51View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 07, 2026, 04:13View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

0 - 390 minutes 0-3

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapValencia +1.75Loss
Over / underOver 3.25Half loss
Correct score2-2Miss
Total goals4+Miss

Review

Final score 0-3. Asian handicap Valencia +1.75 → loss; over/under Over 3.25 → half loss; correct score 2-2 → miss; total goals 4+ → miss.

Nov 08, 2026, 06:06