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Toulouse vs Strasbourg

Ligue 1· Round Regular Season - 10Finished
Toulouse
3:1Sat, Nov 07 03:45Stadium Municipal
Strasbourg

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 3 · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 16:10
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Market verdicts

Version 3 · Odds move rerun · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 16:10

Data completeness 88%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Toulouse has averaged 2 expected goals per match in its last 5 home matches, while Strasbourg has averaged 0.99 expected goals and 1.75 expected goals conceded in its last 5 away matches, making the home side on a 0.5 handicap slightly favored. The over/under at 3 is slightly tilted toward the under, but Strasbourg's away average of 2.6 goals conceded and the scope for Toulouse to improve conversion create a clear opposing risk, resulting in limited overall confidence.

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Analysis versions (9)
  1. Version 9Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 03:31View this version

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 8Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 03:14View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  3. Version 7Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 01:56View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 6Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 01:20View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  5. Version 5Price updateNov 06, 2026, 18:01View this version

    Direction unchanged

  6. Version 4Odds move rerunNov 06, 2026, 17:20View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  7. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 06, 2026, 16:10Current

    Direction unchanged

  8. Version 2Price updateNov 06, 2026, 08:01View this version

    Direction unchanged

  9. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 03:55View this version

    Direction unchanged