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Famalicao vs Arouca

Primeira Liga· Round Regular Season - 11Finished
Famalicao
1:0Sat, Nov 07 04:45Estadio Municipal 22 de Junho
Arouca

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 5 · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 04:38
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Market verdicts

Version 5 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 07, 2026, 04:38

Data completeness 100%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Famalicao have averaged 0.8 goals and 0.45 expected goals per game over their last 5 home matches, while Arouca have averaged 1.14 expected goals and 1.18 expected goals conceded per game over their last 10 matches. The push handicap leans toward the away side, while the 2.25 total goals line leans toward the under. Arouca have actually conceded an average of 0.8 goals per game and have an expected goals conceded figure of 1.62 over their last 5 away matches. Their recent defensive results have been better than their opportunity-quality figures, which is an important risk limiting the strength of this lean.

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Analysis versions (5)
  1. Version 5Lineup updateNov 07, 2026, 04:38Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 4Update (2h before)Nov 07, 2026, 02:57View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 07, 2026, 00:53View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  4. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 06, 2026, 19:51View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 06, 2026, 04:59View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

1 - 090 minutes 1-0

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapArouca 0Loss
Over / underUnder 2.25Win
Correct score0-1Miss
Total goals0-1Hit

Review

Final score 1-0. Asian handicap Arouca 0 → loss; over/under Under 2.25 → win; correct score 0-1 → miss; total goals 0-1 → hit.

Nov 07, 2026, 06:51