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Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth

UEFA Europa League· Round League Stage - 4Finished
Sparta Praha
1:3Fri, Nov 06 01:45Stadion Letná
Bournemouth

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 8 · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 01:26
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 8 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 01:26

Data completeness 90%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Bournemouth's last 5 scorelines were all 2-0 or 3-0, and their chance quality on both ends is also better than the home side's; +1.25 handicap leans slightly toward the away side, but their average of 2 goals conceded per away match limits the strength of this judgment. Evidence on both sides of the 3-goal over/under line is mutually constraining, so a neutral stance is taken for now; the score leans toward 0-2 and the goals band leans toward 2-3.

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Analysis versions (8)
  1. Version 8Lineup updateNov 06, 2026, 01:26Current

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  2. Version 7Odds move rerunNov 06, 2026, 01:15View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 6Odds move rerunNov 06, 2026, 00:32View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 5Update (2h before)Nov 06, 2026, 00:05View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 4Price updateNov 05, 2026, 22:36View this version

    Direction unchanged

  6. Version 3Price updateNov 05, 2026, 17:36View this version

    Direction unchanged

  7. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 05, 2026, 15:02View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  8. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 05, 2026, 02:09View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

1 - 390 minutes 1-3

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapSparta Praha +1Loss
Over / underUnder 3Loss
Correct score1-1Miss
Total goals2-3Miss

Review

Final score 1-3. Asian handicap Sparta Praha +1 → loss; over/under Under 3 → loss; correct score 1-1 → miss; total goals 2-3 → miss.

Nov 06, 2026, 03:51