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Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg

UEFA Europa League· Round League Stage - 4Finished
Anderlecht
2:0Fri, Nov 06 01:45Lotto Park
Red Bull Salzburg

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 4 · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 01:29
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Market verdicts

Version 4 · Lineup update · Generated Nov 06, 2026, 01:29

Data completeness 90%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Anderlecht has conceded 0.6 goals and recorded 0.78 expected goals conceded per game over its last 5 home matches, but Salzburg has recorded 2.13 expected goals and 6.4 shots on target per game over its last 10 matches, creating a lean toward Salzburg receiving half a goal under the current handicap. The 3.25 total goals line only mildly favors under, while the recent 4-1 and 5-1 scorelines and Salzburg's actual goals conceded being below its expected goals conceded limit the strength of that conclusion.

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Analysis versions (3)
  1. Version 4Lineup updateNov 06, 2026, 01:29Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 06, 2026, 00:48View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 2Update (2h before)Nov 06, 2026, 00:04View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

2 - 090 minutes 2-0

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapRed Bull Salzburg +0.5Loss
Over / underUnder 3.25Win
Correct score1-1Miss
Total goals2-3Hit

Review

Final score 2-0. Asian handicap Red Bull Salzburg +0.5 → loss; over/under Under 3.25 → win; correct score 1-1 → miss; total goals 2-3 → hit.

Nov 06, 2026, 03:51