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Real Sociedad vs Lyon

UEFA Europa League· Round League Stage - 4Finished
Real Sociedad
1:1Fri, Nov 06 01:45Anoeta Stadium
Lyon

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 4 · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 20:36
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 4 · Price update · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 20:36

Data completeness 78%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

The home team has averaged 2.5 goals and 1.7 goals conceded over its last 10 matches, but over its last 5 home matches it has averaged 1.2 goals and 1.6 conceded. The corresponding figures for the away team are 1.7 and 1.2 over its last 10 matches, and 0.6 and 1.6 over its last 5 away matches. The current split of the home team's half-goal handicap and the 3-goal over/under by home and away performance slightly supports the home-team direction and the under direction, but missing personnel and head-to-head information limits the degree of confidence.

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Analysis versions (6)
  1. Version 7Lineup updateNov 06, 2026, 01:37View this version

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 6Odds move rerunNov 06, 2026, 01:02View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 4Price updateNov 05, 2026, 20:36Current

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 05, 2026, 17:54View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  5. Version 2Price updateNov 05, 2026, 12:36View this version

    Direction unchanged

  6. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 05, 2026, 02:08View this version

    Direction unchanged