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Lillestrom vs Plzen

UEFA Europa League· Round League Stage - 4Finished
Lillestrom
0:1Fri, Nov 06 01:45Åråsen Stadion
Plzen

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 2 · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 16:49
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 2 · Odds move rerun · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 16:49

Data completeness 78%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

The home team average 1.5 expected goals for and 1.79 expected goals against over the last 10 matches, and 1.6 scored / 2.4 conceded per game over the last 5 home matches; the away team average 0.93 expected goals for and 1.43 expected goals against over the last 10, and 0.8 scored / 1.4 conceded per game over the last 5 away matches. The home team's recent results and home defense, and the away team's away attack, provide opposing signals, and head-to-head, personnel, and referee data are missing, so both the Asian handicap and over/under are neutral for now, with the score distribution giving a low-intensity lean toward 1-1 and the 2-3 goals band.

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Analysis versions (4)
  1. Version 4Price updateNov 06, 2026, 01:06View this version

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 3Update (2h before)Nov 06, 2026, 00:04View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 05, 2026, 16:49Current

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 05, 2026, 02:11View this version

    Direction unchanged