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Slavia Praha vs Arsenal

UEFA Champions League· Round League Stage - 4Finished
Slavia Praha
1:2Thu, Nov 05 04:00Sinobo Stadium
Arsenal

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 8 · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 03:24
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Market verdicts

Version 8 · Odds move rerun · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 03:24

Data completeness 88%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Arsenal has scored 1.2 goals per match over its last 5 away matches, while its 1.43 expected goals are below 1.58 expected goals conceded, supporting the home side at +1.75. Its last 10 matches have produced 0.7 goals conceded per match; combined with Slavia Praha’s 0.7 goals scored per match, this points to under 2.75. Slavia Praha’s 2.5 home goals conceded per match is clearly above 1.48 expected goals conceded and is the main counter-risk to the home-side and under assessments; the score and total-goals band lean toward 0-2 and 2-3 goals.

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Analysis versions (7)
  1. Version 8Odds move rerunNov 05, 2026, 03:24Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 7Price updateNov 05, 2026, 02:31View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 6Update (2h before)Nov 05, 2026, 02:22View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 5Odds move rerunNov 04, 2026, 19:57View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 4Odds move rerunNov 04, 2026, 14:58View this version

    Direction or tier changed

    Version differences unlock with membership or points

  6. Version 2Odds move rerunNov 04, 2026, 13:01View this version

    Direction unchanged

  7. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 04, 2026, 04:18View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

1 - 290 minutes 1-2

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapArsenal -1.5Loss
Over / underOver 2.75Half win
Correct score0-3Miss
Total goals4+Miss

Review

Final score 1-2. Asian handicap Arsenal -1.5 → loss; over/under Over 2.75 → half win; correct score 0-3 → miss; total goals 4+ → miss.

Nov 05, 2026, 06:06