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PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge KV

UEFA Champions League· Round League Stage - 4Finished
PSV Eindhoven
1:2Thu, Nov 05 04:00Philips Stadion
Club Brugge KV

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 7 · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 03:16
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Market verdicts

Version 7 · Price update · Generated Nov 05, 2026, 03:16

Data completeness 78%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Evidence grade (1–5 stars): computed by code from the gap, agreement with the model, the verified share of the factor ledger and data completeness, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and evidence grade make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Over PSV Eindhoven's last 5 home matches, it has averaged 2.49 expected goals, while Club Brugge KV has averaged 2.66 over its last 5 away matches. Club Brugge KV has averaged 2.8 goals over its last 10 matches, above PSV Eindhoven's 2.2, which supports a lean toward Club Brugge KV receiving 0.5 goals. Both teams' actual goals conceded are below their expected goals conceded, and Club Brugge KV's recent high-scoring results create a mild lean toward the over at 3.5 goals, though PSV Eindhoven's recent low-scoring results limit the strength of that view.

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Analysis versions (7)
  1. Version 7Price updateNov 05, 2026, 03:16Current

    Direction unchanged

  2. Version 6Update (2h before)Nov 05, 2026, 02:14View this version

    Direction unchanged

  3. Version 5Odds move rerunNov 04, 2026, 19:54View this version

    Direction unchanged

  4. Version 4Price updateNov 04, 2026, 16:46View this version

    Direction unchanged

  5. Version 3Odds move rerunNov 04, 2026, 12:58View this version

    Direction unchanged

  6. Version 2Price updateNov 04, 2026, 09:46View this version

    Direction unchanged

  7. Version 1Initial (pre-match)Nov 04, 2026, 04:11View this version

    Direction unchanged

Settlement & review

Result

1 - 290 minutes 1-2

MarketPickOutcome
Asian handicapClub Brugge KV +0.5Win
Over / underOver 3.5Loss
Correct score2-2Miss
Total goals4+Miss

Review

Final score 1-2. Asian handicap Club Brugge KV +0.5 → win; over/under Over 3.5 → loss; correct score 2-2 → miss; total goals 4+ → miss.

Nov 05, 2026, 06:06