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Northern Ireland vs Hungary

UEFA Nations League· Round League B - 2Scheduled
Northern Ireland
Tue, Sep 2902:45Windsor Park
Hungary

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  • Asian handicapPublished
  • Over / underPublished
  • Correct scorePublished
  • Total goalsPublished
  • Version 1 · Generated Sep 28, 2026, 06:35
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The pick and probability for all 4 markets, the chief's verdict, the red-team challenges with the replies, and the advanced data panel
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Market verdicts

Version 1 · Initial (24h before) · Generated Sep 28, 2026, 06:35

Data completeness 53%
Asian handicapPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Over / underPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Correct scorePublished
Pick and probability after unlock
Total goalsPublished
Pick and probability after unlock
How do I read these numbers?
  • Verdict probability: the chief's final chance for this pick after weighing every analyst.
  • Market implied: the probability behind the market consensus odds with the margin removed — what the market thinks.
  • Edge: verdict probability minus market implied; a positive number means we rate the pick higher than the market does.
  • Confidence (1–5 stars): how sure the team is about the call, not a hit rate — four stars does not mean it lands eight times in ten.
  • Tier: enough edge and confidence make a Strong pick, then Lean, otherwise Pass; score and goal-band calls only carry probabilities, with no stars or tier.

Analyst views

Summary

Model expected goals Northern Ireland 1.2391 : Hungary 1.0185; Asian handicap line 0 home 0.580411, away 0.419589, but probability interval width about 0.1200 exceeds the home edge of 0.080411 over 0.5; over/under 2.5 under is 0.607313, expected total goals 2.2576 is only 0.2424 below that line. After red-team review, strengths for the four markets were lowered to 2, 2, 1, 2 respectively, leaning home on Asian handicap line 0, under, 1-1, and 2-3 goals band, limited by last5/last10 each only 1 match and missing xG/xGA, home/away splits, h2h.

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Analysis versions (1)
  1. Version 1Initial (24h before)Sep 28, 2026, 06:35Current

    Direction unchanged